We read of high demand, low inventories, double digit year over year sales increases during the past twenty five months, and finally a year over year sales increase from the current month to the same month last year. This is deceptive. Let me explain.
Double digit sales increases are long gone. The year over year reported increases are illusory. Sales, while technically higher year over year, have shown a steady decline. These reports of double digit sales increases use a one, even two year time span.
For most of 2013, increases have been single digit, and showing a slow, but steady decline. Each month, while showing an increase from the same month last year, have actually seen a declined compared to the previous month of this year.
You can see how a downward trend is presented as upward through the manipulation of statistics. Don't be fooled; if you are considering selling your home, do it now.
By Spring, inventories will have returned to historic levels, and the results of the recent new home construction boom will be hitting the market. As I predicted in a previous letter, price and sales increases will level off by Spring, producing a rough equilibrium between buyers and sellers.
By Spring, price increases will end, possibly even fall back slightly. Even if, as I believe, this situation is temporary, it will hold in our market for at least a year. After this Fall and possibly Winter, the next great selling opportunity will not emerge for us until the Spring of 2015 at the earliest.